The war in Ukraine could reach a point of no return over the summer if the West does not intervene and supply Kyiv with the weapons and ammunition it needs to continue its fight against Russia, an analyst has warned.
“Supplies of critical munitions for frontline Ukrainian units are dwindling, and soldiers are being forced to ration… some units are experiencing significant manpower shortages,” Dara Massicot told Foreign Affairs.
Conversely, “Russian advantages in manpower, materiel, and defence production have grown in the past year”.
Why isn’t the West doing more?
Europe is trying its best to supply Ukraine as best it can, but the reality is the US needs to continue its commitment to Kyiv.
A package worth some $95bn (£75bn) was approved by the Democrat-led Senate on 13 February, but is likely to face stiff opposition in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
Both houses of Congress must approve the bill before Joe Biden can sign it into law.
Some $60bn (£47bn) of the package is allocated for military aid for Ukraine alone.
However, former president Donald Trump and his Republican allies in Congress want funding directed toward domestic issues such as border control, rather than on foreign wars.
Critics of Mr Trump have suggested he is deliberately blocking legislation that would ensure funding for both Ukraine and border control because he intends to focus his election campaign on immigration and it is therefore not in his interests to improve the perceived problems.
What happens next?
“Without a surge in Western military aid and major changes to Kyiv’s strategy, Ukraine’s battlefield position will continue to worsen until it reaches a tipping point, possibly by this summer,” Ms Massicot says.
Without the rapid flow of supplies, Ukraine will be forced to continue its rationing of resources while facing continual attacks from a well-supplied enemy.
“Unless immediate changes are made, this is the path that Ukraine and the West are on.
She surmises that Ukrainian soldiers will be the one to suffer – not because they lack the will to fight or do not know their enemy’s weaknesses, “but because of shortfalls in ammunition and manpower”.
“Time is running out,” she concludes.
