NO OBVIOUS SOLUTION, WITH NO OBVIOUS MEDIATOR
This is the wider conflagration the Biden administration has sought to avoid since the Gazan War began: Muslim states, pushed by images of destruction in a Muslim state, rally against Israel, which would compel the US to intervene on Israel’s side. Something like this happened in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. That conflict pulled in the Cold War superpowers too, threatening a much wider stand-off.
While this outcome seems unlikely at the moment, it looms, because there is no obvious resolution to this slow-boiling conflict. Not even a two-state solution, in which the Palestinians finally receive their own state, would likely end Israeli-Iranian recriminations. That solution would improve Israel’s relations with its Arab Sunni neighbors and isolate Iran, but it would not end the Iranian theological hostility toward Israel.
Persistent conflicts like this often require an outside mediator to tamp down. Unfortunately, there is no credible interlocuter for the relevant parties. The US is no longer a credible mediator in the Middle East; it is seen as too partisan. Russia and the EU are too weak. China is too distant. The UN is the other obvious choice, but it too lacks weight and credibility in the Middle East after decades of failed initiatives.
In short, the conflict is deeply set; there is no obvious solution to it; and there are no obvious mediators. This will get worse before it gets better.
Robert Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) is a professor of political science at Pusan National University.
