Earlier we reported Vladimir Putin’s claims that there are no plans to capture the city of Kharkiv as his forces continue to attack the region (see 11.17am post).
Our defence and security analyst Michael Clarke says Russian forces would not be able to take the city even if they tried as they “just don’t have the forces to concentrate on big cities”.
“It would take them months of grinding warfare to actually conquer Kharkiv,” he said.
“Unless the Ukrainians somehow open the gates and let them in, which they won’t.”
Moscow’s forces are pushing towards the village of Lyptsi, he says, which is about 15 miles from Kharkiv city and well within artillery range.
“If they get there, they could certainly start to bombard the city and Ukrainians would have to do something about that,” he said, adding they are also targeting the key town of Vovchansk, possibly to try to link up with forces further south.
While capturing the city of Kharkiv remains a remote possibility, Clarke says they can draw Ukrainian forces away from the south, as they “already have done”.
Buffer zone ‘propaganda’
Mr Putin claims the Kharkiv offensive is to create a buffer zone between the two countries, so Ukraine cannot attack regions within Russia.
Belgorod, in particular, has reportedly been the target of Ukrainian drone attacks in recent weeks, but Clarke says any buffer zone is unlikely to make much difference.
“At the moment, he’s got a boundary of about three miles and the Ukrainians are getting American missiles,” Clarke says.
“The missiles come with maximum ranges of about 170, 180 miles. It’s neither here nor there.”
The Ukrainians have got “many ways” of attacking Belgorod and Rostov, he said.
“So, I think it’s more for propaganda purposes inside Russia – that Putin is saying ‘we’re having a border area to reassure the public in Belgorod and Rostov that these cross-border raids and these missile strikes might not take place in the future’.”
UK is ‘de facto’ participant
Meanwhile, Russia’s ambassador to the UK has said Britain is a de facto a participant in the Ukraine war (see our 12.32pm post).
Clarke says this is the “truest thing he’s said today”.
“The British government has made it very clear we’re helping the Ukrainians with intelligence and, where appropriate, we’ve done it with our aerial intelligence,” he said.
“So, the Russian ambassador is telling me something I’ve known for about the last two and a bit years.”
