On Sunday, Venezuela held a referendum on what it says are its rights to a potentially oil-rich territory that is the subject of a border dispute with neighbouring Guyana. The region, called Essequibo and which makes up two thirds of Guyana, is mostly rainforest above ground but is thought to be rich in fossil fuels below, while in 2015, a potentially massive oil field was discovered off its coast.
The area has long been a source of friction between Venezuela and Guyana, which gained independence from Britain in 1966 and is still a member of the Commonwealth. An 1889 ruling that said the Essequibo region was part of Guyana has periodically but repeatedly, depending on the political mood of the time, been dismissed by authorities in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas.
Continuing a long trope of blaming anything bad on the United States, Venezuelan politicians seeking to thump this particular tub dismiss the 1889 ruling because their country was represented in the negotiations by the US – Caracas had, at the time, broken off diplomatic relations with Britain. The whole thing was a massive stitch-up, its argument goes, part of the Great Rapprochement between Britain and the US in the late 19th century and, therefore, can be ignored.
Venezuela, according to the oil giant BP, has more reserves of the black gold than any other country on the planet, so Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan president, doesn’t really need to make a play for the stuff from next door. But now, having made a right old song and dance about the referendum, Mr Maduro must either see through his promise to grab Essequibo, with all the chaos that will bring, or back down and invite ridicule ahead of presidential elections next year.
So why has he done it? What’s in it for him? Maybe he wasn’t the instigator of this crisis. Maybe some other actor has encouraged, cajoled or forced Mr Maduro to act in this way to divert international attention and test, yet again, the world’s appetite for standing up to bullies who care nothing for sovereignty and instead like to redraw international boundaries by force.
Where would we find such a fellow who might fit that mug shot?
In this episode of Defence in Depth, Dominic Nicholls, The Telegraph’s Associate Editor (Defence), explains how as the crisis between Venezuela and Guyana deepens, Russia can’t claim to be only an interested third party.
Watch Dominic’s video analysis above. Find more episodes of Defence in Depth on The Telegraph’s YouTube channel.
