Your questions answered: If Trump wins the election, could Ukraine survive solely on Europe’s support?
Hundreds of messages have been flooding in since the return of our feature in which Sky News correspondents and military analysts answer your questions.
This one from our reader Hillshome has been put to our military analyst Sean Bell.
Many believe Trump is a Putin fan and that Putin will continue the war at least until he knows who will be the next president. If USA does withdraw assistance to Ukraine, can Ukraine survive and continue its defence on European aid alone?
Bell says…
Thank you for this question.
Ukraine has provided heroic resistance to the illegal invasion by Russia, but President Zelenskyy is heavily dependent on Western military and financial support to maintain its momentum in its war of national survival.
The US provides by far the largest military contribution to Ukraine, dwarfing that of other international partners.
However, as the war moves towards the end of its second year, there are increasing international concerns about the balance between support for Ukraine and domestic priorities.
As we have already seen in Europe, a change of national leadership often heralds a review of domestic priorities, and with a global cost of living crisis, a growing war-weariness and the distraction of the Israeli conflict, President Zelenskyy is fighting an uphill battle to maintain Ukraine at the top of the international news agenda.
The US presidential elections might well lead to a change of administration, but that does not necessarily mean that US support for Ukraine will cease.
However, former president Trump has made clear that he believes there is a “deal to be done” in Ukraine, suggesting that he would look to apply leverage to bring the conflict to an end.
When the conflict ends – as it will surely do eventually – Ukraine will need robust security guarantees, and also huge financial support to enable the rebuilding process.
The US is ideally placed to take a leading role in both these discussions, and this is where Trump probably sees the opportunity for negotiation.
Even with US support – and that of numerous European allies – Ukraine has struggled to translate military support into battlefield success.
If the USA were to withdraw all military and financial support, Europe would struggle to make up the difference, and that would inevitably have a huge impact on Ukraine’s military capability and embolden Russia.
However, the key issue is whether Ukraine has the military capability to break the current deadlock.
Prolonging the fighting risks a steady increase in casualties, which for Ukraine raises the prospect of increased risk of a Russian breakthrough and further losses of territory.
President Zelenskyy will be hoping that the Israel conflict abates over the winter to enable the media spotlight to return to Ukraine in time to rally international support for Ukraine’s next offensive effort.
