- By Esme Stallard
- Climate and science reporter, BBC News
Image source, Getty Images
The nations of the world are due to meet at the COP28 summit in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to try to agree far-reaching action on climate change.
They are under pressure to further progress landmark commitments they made eight years ago in Paris.
What is the Paris Agreement?
The Paris Agreement saw almost all the world’s nations – for the first time – support a common strategy to cut the greenhouse gas emissions which cause global warming.
Adopted by 194 parties (193 countries plus the EU) in the French capital on 12 December 2015, the treaty came into force on 4 November 2016.
What was agreed?
- To “pursue efforts” to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C, and to keep them “well below” 2.0C above pre-industrial times
- To limit greenhouse gas emissions from human activity to the same levels that trees, soil and oceans can absorb naturally – known as net zero – between 2050 and 2100
- Each country to set its own emission-reduction targets, reviewed every five years to raise ambitions
- Richer countries to help poorer nations by providing funding, known as climate finance, to adapt to climate change and switch to renewable energy
Why is it so significant for COP28?
Some of the key discussions in Dubai, UAE will be about whether and how countries are building on what they promised in Paris.
When the agreement was signed, governments admitted the targets set would not be enough to limit global warming to 1.5C.
Since COP27 last year nearly forty countries have put forward new targets for reducing their emissions. But even with these pledges, global warming would still only be limited to 2.0C, according to the independent Climate Action Tracker.
There is also concern that the targets will not be achieved based on the current policies governments have put in place.
The UK has a legally binding target to reduce emissions by 68% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. But earlier this year Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delayed crucial green policies such as phasing out fossil fuel cars.
The chair of the UK government’s independent climate advisors, Piers Foster said at the time: “[The] announcement is likely to take the UK further away from being able to meet its legal commitments.”
COP28 will also host a series of technical reviews as part of the “global stocktake” (GST). This is where countries review whether their plans are strong enough to prevent temperatures rising above 1.5C, using analysis prepared by UN officials and scientists.
It is hoped the process will strengthen the case for further action.
What about promises to help poorer countries?
The Paris Agreement restated a commitment made in 2009 that the world’s richer countries should provide $100bn (£87bn) annually by 2020 to help developing nations deal with the effects of climate change, and build greener economies.
But in 2020 only $83.3bn was raised. Although as yet unverified, the OECD has announced that the 2022 figures suggests the “goal looks likely to have been meet”.
Developing countries for decades have also been demanding finance for “loss and damage” – this is specific compensation to cover losses they are already incurring from the effects of climate change.
Clause 8 of the Paris Agreement mentioned the concept, but it was not until last year at COP27 in Egypt that countries agreed to setting up a fund.
As yet no figure has been settled on for how much will go into the fund – it is hoped this will be agreed at COP28. But developed nations remain nervous that any funding commitments would be seen as accepting liability for global warming and they would be tied into decades of repayments.
Did the Paris Agreement go far enough?
Although the Paris Agreement laid out a clear target point, it did not contain the specific detail on how to reach it.
The ambition is to create a “net zero” world by 2050. That means reducing greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible, and removing any remaining emissions from the atmosphere, through natural or artificial processes.
Scientists argue it is vital to assess the progress being made towards that goal every year.
The UN group of climate experts, the IPCC, has estimated an annual budget of carbon emissions the world can release before temperatures rise above 1.5 degrees, measured in gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e).
In 2018, the IPCC estimated that the world should only release 25-30 GtCO2e per year by 2030.
The UAE President of COP28 Sultan al-Jaber has said that COP28 will focus on delivering efforts to increase renewable energy and reducing fossil fuels without carbon capture, which will be needed to bringing down emissions.
