Beryl became the season’s first major hurricane on Sunday, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, and it could reach Category 4 status as it nears the Caribbean, forecasters said.
As of early Sunday, Beryl was an “extremely dangerous Category 3 hurricane … that could bring life-threatening winds and storm surge” on its approach to the far eastern Caribbean early Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Sunday’s 11 a.m. advisory marked the sixth successive advisory where Beryl’s windspeed has increased. The steady windspeed increases have come after the hurricane center — saying Beryl was “rapidly intensifying” — had forecast the storm to achieve top wind speeds of 130 mph as it sweeps through the Caribbean Sea.
Jamaica, Belize and parts of Mexico were within Beryl’s cone Sunday.
The forecast for Beryl includes “a life-threatening storm surge” of as much as 6-9 feet and 3 to 6 inches of rain across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday into Monday, increasing the potential for flash flooding, according to the hurricane center,
Forecasters also said Sunday that a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic off Africa could become a tropical depression by midweek as it moves toward the eastern and central Caribbean.
Hurricane warnings are in effect across the eastern Caribbean for Beryl, as the islands braced for the first hurricane of what’s expected to be an extremely active storm season.
At 11 a.m. Sunday, the storm was 355 miles east-southeast of Barbados and moving west at 21 mph.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from Beryl’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles. As of 5 a.m. Sunday, its maximum sustained winds were projected to reach 130 mph in the next 24-36 hours, which would make it a Category 4 hurricane.
A hurricane warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Tobago, and the Grenadine Islands and Grenada, while a tropical storm warning is in effect for Martinique. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Dominica and Trinidad.
“Development this far east in late June is unusual,” the forecasters at the hurricane center said. “In fact, there have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.”
Beryl is not expected to affect South Florida.
By Wednesday, the storm is expected to encounter unfavorable atmospheric conditions, with high-altitude crosswinds that will weaken it.
Meanwhile, a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, which could become a tropical depression by midweek as it moves toward the eastern and central Caribbean, was given a 40% chance of developing in the next two days and a 70% chance in the next seven days.
It is expected to move west at 15 to 20 mph, forecasters said.
Also, a tropical wave moving across the Caribbean and headed west toward inland Mexico could become a short-lived tropical depression.
It has a 50% chance of developing in the two to seven days.
Heavy rain is expected to affect portions of Central America and Mexico through the weekend.
The next named storm will be Chris.
The western Gulf of Mexico generated the 2024 season’s first tropical storm last week. Dubbed Alberto, the system made landfall in Mexico 250 miles south of the U.S. border, but sent storm surge and flood to spots 500 miles away in Louisiana.
The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began June 1, is expected to be extremely active.
In its annual May outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 39 mph, and eight to 13 hurricanes. An average year has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
In addition, NOAA has forecast four to seven major hurricanes for 2024, meaning those that are Category 3 or above.
Experts at Colorado State University stated in their 2024 forecast that the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.
Forecasters say that the record-warm water temperatures that now cover much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into peak hurricane season from August to October. That warm water fuels hurricanes. By early June, the tropical Atlantic was already as hot as it usually is in mid-August — peak hurricane season.
Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.
