How could Israel respond in the future?
Experts said that Israel will certainly respond but likely in a measured fashion, given the pressure that its allies have put it under.
Mr Ryan Bohl, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at RANE, told CNA’s Asia First that Israel could launch a symbolic response, such as striking large unoccupied sites or locations within Iran that are not strategically important to Iran’s government.
Mr Bohl pointed out that Israel is under enormous diplomatic pressure from the US not to destabilise the region.
“That could provoke this tit for tat, missile-and-drone cycle that we’re starting to see evolve,” he added.
“For that matter, it’s not exactly in Israel’s interest to get stuck in that cycle either because we’ve seen in the region already, the US is carrying out this open-ended campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, and they don’t really have an exit strategy there.”
He noted that because Iran is “much bigger” and “much more capable”, its assaults will almost certainly get past Israeli air defences and cause significant civilian and military casualties if the two regional foes do enter a back-and-forth escalation.
Dr Pratt also said a lot depends on the pressure that the Biden administration puts on Mr Netanyahu and the Israeli government.
“I don’t think it’s yet time to panic, but the possibility of an escalation certainly is there,” he added.
“If we’re talking about limited retaliation within Israel, we could see things like escalated Israeli strikes on Iranian proxies, more intense bombings of Hezbollah positions or more strikes in Damascus.”
Dr Pratt further flagged the possibility of direct strikes by Israel on Iranian military assets, though he said this was a less probable outcome.
Nevertheless, Mr Bohl warned of a “strong risk” that Israel and Iran will strike each other “more and more overtly”. He added that as both countries do not share a border, this could echo the Russia-Ukraine war where both sides have been going deeper and deeper into each other’s territories.
On the other hand, Mr Panikoff said if Israel’s leaders can be convinced not to take military action, they could launch something in the clandestine realm.
These include cyberattacks, as well as attacks against Iran’s facilities that have been encouraging malign influence throughout the region from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
