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Welcome to EU Politics Decoded where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday.
In this edition, we look at how MEPs quietly voted to demand a constitutional convention to re-open the EU treaties.
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Editor’s Take: The little-noticed vote to change the EU treaties
The hard business of lawmaking was the dominant theme in Strasbourg this week. Packaging, pesticides, transport emissions, right to repair and many others occupied the time and minds of MEPs and officials.
These are the most intense months for EU legislators and the many interest groups lobbying around them: lawmakers only have a few months to get laws onto the statute book before the end of the mandate.
Meanwhile, with the June elections fast approaching, many national and European parties are already in campaign mode.
Amid this tumult of law and politics, the decision by MEPs to back a demand for treaty reform and a formal call for a convention to discuss reform has been dismissed by many as a ‘niche’ topic. That would be a mistake: this was a historic vote, as there is a tiny window of opportunity to open the convention.
But there is hardly a groundswell of momentum behind it. Including abstentions, the Parliament’s demands were backed by fewer than half the MEPs – 305 votes to 276 against.
That was partly because of the length and ambition of the shopping list of reforms demanded by MEPs. In particular, the centre-right European People’s Party was divided in the final vote because of a proposal seeking to limit the number of Commissioners composing the EU executive.
Those divisions in Parliament could give national governments an added excuse to shoot down the treaty reform plans.
As it is, heads of states now have to decide, probably in a vote in December with a simple majority, on whether to open a convention or not. The issue is, at the time of writing, not on the agenda of December’s European Council summit – though this could change.
The question of reforming the EU treaties is heavily polarised in some member states. Poland is flatly against it. However, to trigger the convention, 14 member states have to be in favour – still a hard task, but more manageable in comparison with the famous ‘unanimity’.
In the meantime, there is another factor that could convince member states to use the convention: the enlargement process.
If new members are to join the EU, their accession treaties will, by definition, make some reforms to the bloc as a whole.
So the question is, why not start getting on with the convention at the beginning of the next mandate?
Who’s electioneering
Wilders’ triumph leaves the Dutch centre-right facing a momentous choice. The shock win of Geert Wilders’ Freedom party (PVV), and the scale of their success, could be a seismic moment in European politics. The centre-right VVD and New Social Contract (NSC) parties, who obtained 24 and 20 seats respectively, face a momentous decision. They have the numbers to give Wilders a majority in the 151-seat parliament.
The VVD and NSC, led by justice minister Dilan Yesilgöz and whistleblower MP Pieter Omtzigt respectively, had previously insisted that they would not be part of a Wilders-led government. However, the scale of the PVV’s win will put them under immense pressure.
The route to an alternative centrist government, potentially led by former EU climate tsar Frans Timmermans, whose red-green coalition finished second with 25 seats, is possible, but tougher. Getting close to the numbers would need the VVD or NSC plus the liberal D66, who were one of the biggest losers in the elections, as well as the new farmers’ party.
A Wilders premiership would be leapt upon by Marine Le Pen and other European far-right parties as proof that their aspirations can go beyond being protest parties. It would also mark the formal end of the so-called cordon sanitaire that has seen centrist parties across Europe work together to keep out the far-right.
Politics in the Spotlight
What is the strategy of the European People’s Party (EPP) ahead of the European elections? Will von der Leyen run for a second mandate? These and many other topics are discussed in this video interview with EPP President Manfred Weber about the European centre-right election campaign.
Capitals-in-brief
58% of young Italians believe that climate challenge ‘can be won’. More than half of young Italians believe that the climate challenge to reduce emissions and other sources impacting climate change can be met on time, according to a study by the Allianz Foundation published on Wednesday (22 November) which interviewed around 10,000 18- 39-year-olds in the UK, Germany, Poland, Italy. However, pessimism abounds in Germany where only 8% of the respondents were positive about the future of the planet.
France unveils 2030 energy targets, criticised by environmental NGOs. The document unveiled by the Energy Ministry setting out France’s 2030 energy targets and which was submitted for public consultation has insufficient data to judge the actions taken by public authorities, the Climate Action Network France said on Wednesday.
Czechia will use EU Just Transition Fund for large ‘risky’ projects. Czechia wants to devote a larger part of the EU’s Just Transition Fund to large-scale strategic projects that have long faced criticism and are connected with significant risks, said Deputy Environment Minister Jan Kříž, adding that projects must undergo a robust approval process to receive the funding.
Bulgarian government survives second no-confidence vote. The Bulgarian government survived a second no-confidence vote on Wednesday – which had been based on the government’s record on defence and national security.
Inside the institutions
MEPs kill off EU pesticide reduction plan. The European Parliament has rejected a proposal on the EU’s pesticide reduction plan, effectively killing off the regulation in a move lamented by green groups but celebrated by EU farmers’ associations.
EU Parliament’s slim majority triggers convention on treaty reform. The European Parliament approved a proposal for EU treaty reform on Wednesday (22 November), by a narrower-than-expected majority, which triggers a formal request to the heads of state to vote on whether to open an EU treaty reform convention.
MEPs agree to open a new Kyiv office at Zelenskyy’s request. The European Parliament has agreed to open an office in Ukraine as a way to boost its support for the Ukrainian Parliament, following requests by top Ukrainian government officials, according to a document from the European Parliament bureau seen by Euractiv.
New internal rules on whistleblowers’ protection. The European Parliament approved new internal rules on how whistleblowers can act and how they are protected on Monday evening (20 November), to update and clarify existing procedures, an official source from the European Parliament told Euractiv.
Spanish EU presidency prepares to wrap up technical work on AI law. The Spanish presidency needs to conclude the technical preparation for the EU’s AI Act this week to request a revised mandate ahead of what is meant to be the last high-level meeting to reach a political agreement on the file.
EU Parliament backs extensive net-zero industry ‘wishlist’, including nuclear. The European Parliament voted on Tuesday (21 November) to include 17 technologies – including nuclear energy – in the EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act, paving the way for talks with EU member states to finalise the law in December, and probably whittle down the list.
Hungary is still falling short on criteria to receive EU funds, say Commissioners. The stand-off between Brussels and Budapest will continue after two EU Commissioners told MEPs that the EU executive is still not ready to unlock billions of euros in recovery funds for Hungary.
What we are reading
Ahead of Wednesday’s vote in favour of creating a new UN tax convention, Jayati Ghosh, Jose Antonio Ocamp and Joseph Stiglitz criticise the EU and US for sticking to the exclusionary status quo in Project Syndicate.
Complacency and the centre-right’s mixed messages on immigration and asylum created the conditions for Geert Wilders’ election win, argues Cas Mudde in the Guardian.
In EU Observer, Elena Sanchez Nicolas looks at why the Spanish government’s plan to offer amnesty to Catalan separatists in exchange for political support is causing so much controversy.
The next week in politics
After a week in Strasbourg, MEPs return to Brussels for a committee week.
It is a quiet week for ministers, meanwhile, with trade ministers and employment ministers having their monthly gatherings.
Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at benjamin.fox@euractiv.com / eleonora.vasques@euractiv.com or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83
[Edited by Nathalie Weatherald]
