By Sean Bell, military analyst
Last Wednesday, a Russian Air Force IL76 transport aircraft crashed near Belgorod, the Russian town near the border with Ukraine. Russia claims that 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war were being transported on the aircraft when it crashed, together with six crew members and three guards. There were no survivors.
Moscow claims the aircraft was shot down by a Ukrainian missile, but controversy surrounds the loss of this strategically important Russia air asset. Despite the circumstances, in the information war that at times envelops Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, establishing the truth can be, at best, challenging.
The IL76 aircraft could have crashed as a result of an accident. However, a four-engined military transport aircraft would be very unlikely to crash spontaneously and kill all the occupants.
Or, the Russian aircraft could have been shot down, by either the Russian or Ukrainian forces.
By way of context, Russia has increasingly been launching missile attacks from Belgorod and transport planes like the IL76 deliver the weapons that are then launched across the border. Indeed, an early statement on a Ukrainian news website quoted an armed forces source claiming responsibility for the attack because the plane had been carrying Russian S300 missiles.
Belgorod is a major logistics hub for Russian military forces deploying into Ukraine. The town is close enough to the border to be within range of Ukrainian artillery, and both sides use armed drones to disrupt and destroy their enemy’s military capability. As a result, both Russia and Ukraine have air defence systems near the border area, and there are regular military exchanges around the Belgorod region. An airstrike in Belgorod city on 30 December 2023 killed 25 people and injured more than 100 others.
So, could Russia have shot down its own aircraft? Although at first glance that would appear unlikely, in the “fog of war” many air defence missile system operators have very little time to decide whether a potential target is “friend or foe”. If in doubt, history shows it is sometimes easier to fire first and answer questions later. In the Gulf War, the US Patriot missile system protected the border with Kuwait, but Western fighter jets returning from missions deep inside Iraq were often more concerned about being shot down by friendly forces than feeling threatened by Iraqi air defence systems.
It would not be the first time that inexperienced or nervous Russian missile operators had shot down one of their own.
But the most likely cause of the crash would have been Ukraine deliberately targeting the Il76 as part of its ongoing efforts to destroy Russian military resupplies. Ukraine did confirm that a prisoner swap was planned for Wednesday and didn’t happen, but Ukraine also advised that Russia historically provided advanced information on the logistic details for any exchange to avoid any miscalculation. Ukraine claims there was no such information provided on this occasion.
Since the incident involved a Russian military aircraft, and it crashed on Russian soil, it is very likely that we will never know exactly what happened, who was on board, and the circumstances of the crash.
The truth remains one of the first casualties of war.
