By Sean Bell, military analyst
Overnight Russia launched another massive wave of rocket and missile attacks on Ukraine. Ukraine claims that over 100 missiles were fired with most targeting the capital Kyiv or the city of Kharkiv. They say that in addition to the Shahed 136 drones (sourced from Iran), the Russian attack included 10 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, and 59 cruise missiles.
Five civilians have been killed, Ukrainian officials say, and dozens more wounded, although those figures tend to be revised upwards as the rubble is cleared.
Russia regularly targets the capital Kyiv, with the primary focus on energy infrastructure designed to make life as miserable as possible for the local population in mid-winter. However, the attacks on Kharkiv are probably more focused on Ukrainian logistics support for the battle in the Donbas, which is evidently Russia’s battlefield priority.
Since the end of last year, Ukraine claims that Russia has launched over 170 attack drones at targets across the country, and there are reports that the Russians are now painting the drones black in an effort to make them harder for Ukrainian air defences to detect.
So why is Russia increasing its missile attacks on Ukraine now?
It is unlikely that Russia would use its limited supplies of missiles and drones to attack purely civilian targets such as residential buildings, hospitals and schools, but Ukraine’s increasingly effective air defence capability does mean that debris from the missiles shot down does often cause indiscriminate damage.
Unlike Russia which has the capability and intent to strike targets across Ukraine, President Zelenskyy cannot use Western-supplied missiles and weapons to strike targets inside Russia. Therefore, when Ukraine wants to retaliate for Russian strikes, its options are limited.
Ukrainian drones can reach deep into Russia, but are relatively easily shot down by Russian air defences.
Artillery fire is less easily defeated, but has limited range – usually 18km – but this can be extended to around 30km with rocket propelled artillery or guided artillery rounds.
Therefore, Ukraine tends to focus its retaliatory strikes on targets close to the Russian border, with towns like Belgorod and Shebekino providing suitable options.
Although these towns are often described by Ukraine as being logistical hubs for Russian military personnel and equipment, the strikes appear to result in significant civilian casualties.
Although the frontline in this debilitating conflict remains relatively static with the deteriorating winter weather, fighting remains intense with rising casualties, and both sides are probably seeking to achieve a degree of momentum with the use of missiles, rockets and artillery.
