The US has signaled a potential strategic pivot from legacy intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) systems to more advanced platforms leveraging new technologies like space-based assets and stealth drones.
This month, The War Zone reported that US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall hinted at a new ISR platform during a roundtable discussion before the Farnborough International Airshow in the United Kingdom.
The discussion, sparked by aviation journalist Chris Pocock’s inquiry about US ISR after the retirement of the U-2 Dragon Lady and RQ-4 Global Hawk, saw Kendall describe future ISR as “a combination of things,” including space-based capabilities and new systems like the E-7 command and control node.
The War Zone report says that while details are scarce, Northrop Grumman’s RQ-180 stealth drone, built for contested air space and known as the “White Bat”, is likely key to the new high-tech strategy.
It notes that the US Air Force plans to retire its U-2s, operated since the 1950s, and RQ-4 drones, first introduced in 2001, by 2026 and the end of 2027 respectively, despite Congressional resistance to shutting them down.
The moves reflect a US strategic shift toward more survivable and modern ISR systems in the face of increasing threats from adversaries’ air defenses, particularly from China and Russia.
The War Zone says the new ISR approach likely emphasizes distributed concepts and advanced computing to collect and prioritize critical data for near-real-time exploitation.
It notes that if the RQ-180 continues to receive government funding, it could serve multiple roles including electronic attack and data-sharing, and represents a move away from legacy platforms deemed too vulnerable for modern warfare.
Recent US drone losses in Yemen may have exposed the limitations of legacy drones like the MQ-9, whose design and basic technologies date back to the 1990s. Those losses have likely prompted the US to reconsider its strategies for developing and using drones.
In June 2024, Asia Times noted the US had lost several MQ-9 Reaper drone losses to Yemen’s Houthi rebels, whose basic air defense systems managed to shoot down the costly drones.
Although the MQ-9 is considered expendable, its US$30 million per unit price tag raises broader concerns about the US strategy for using drones in modern warfare. The MQ-9 is also considered too expensive and slow to regenerate to operate within surface-to-air missile (SAM) range.
The MQ-9 was designed in an era when the US assumed air supremacy as a given. It was built to carry a limited payload while maximizing loiter time. However, the MQ-9 was not designed with maneuverability in mind, making it vulnerable in large-scale combat operations.
Antonio Calcara and other writers point out in a December 2022 article in the peer-reviewed Security Studies journal that current-generation drones such as the MQ-9 have a larger radar cross-section (RCS) than often assumed, diminishing the perceived advantage of being small.
Calcara and others say that modern air defense systems can counter these features through radar adjustments and elevation tactics. They add that low-altitude flight, while reducing detection range, poses risks and can be countered by airborne radars.
They note that the potential for next-generation drones to gain an offensive advantage is contingent on future developments in drone and air defense technologies.
However, they caution that technological advancements in air defense (e.g., improved radar, big data, machine learning) will continue to pose challenges to drones.
Based on those points, Calcara and others refute the assumption that drones will always get through and highlight the evolving nature of military technology, urging a balanced consideration of offensive and defensive innovations.
Stealthier and more survivable drones such as the RQ-180 could enable the US to enhance the ISR capabilities of weak allies such as the Philippines, supporting the latter’s diplomatic and military efforts while shielding the US from having to intervene directly under their mutual defense treaty.
While the viability of the Philippines’ “assertive transparency” strategy versus China is now questionable following a series of significant maritime standoffs that have shown China is undeterred by the reputational costs of aggressive actions, US ISR support could be crucial in improving the Philippines’ diplomatic efforts vis-à-vis China in their South China Sea disputes.
As the US and the Philippines finalize their General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) intelligence-sharing pact, the capabilities provided by advanced ISR assets such as the RQ-180 may prove critical in the agreement’s usefulness and success.
The US could also use advanced drones such as the RQ-180 to bolster the Philippines’ weak ISR capabilities, toughening the latter’s lacking military position in the South China Sea and making it a more viable defensive position for the US in the First Island Chain.
In June 2024, Asia Times noted that as the Philippines lacks long-range ISR capabilities, it could be restricted to using its newly acquired and much-touted BrahMos missiles within the short range covered by its limited ISR assets, which extend only a few dozen kilometers from shore. The Philippines lacks over-the-horizon (OTH) radar, a capability usually restricted to major military powers.
Instead of specialized airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, the Philippines has a motley fleet of Beechcraft King Air C-90, BN-2A Islander and Cessna 208 planes barely suited for the task.
Additionally, the Philippines has a limited number of Hermes and ScanEagle drones that are slow and vulnerable to advanced Chinese air defense systems.
Given those deficiencies, the US may use sophisticated drones to improve the Philippines’ ISR capabilities, as shown by its deployment of the MQ-9A Reaper drone to support a sinking exercise (SINKEX) in May.
During this joint exercise, the Philippines’ BRP Jose Rizal frigate sank a decommissioned Chinese-made oil tanker with ISR support from a US MQ-9A drone.
However, the MQ-9 might struggle with China’s sophisticated air defenses, as it previously failed to withstand even basic air defenses when deployed against Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The US introduction of advanced drones such as the RQ-180 could spark a larger drone arms race in the Indo-Pacific region, pitting US high-tech drones against China’s mass production capabilities.
This month, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that the US and China, inspired by advanced drone technologies seen in the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, are both keenly investing in unmanned aerial vehicles and AI to bolster their strategic capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region.
China has notably accelerated its drone development over the past two years, creating faster, smarter and adaptable drones for its navy, army and air force, drawing the attention of military observers worldwide.
SCMP asserts China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is now tactically on par with US forces, thanks to its integration of UAVs and other drone technologies with crewed assets.
It highlights China’s development of possibly the world’s first dedicated drone carrier ship and the Type 076 amphibious assault ship, which could support drones, other aircraft and assault forces.
The SCMP report says that China’s drone strategy, emphasizing mass production and low unit costs, could significantly impact future combat operations and sea-based carrier activities.
