The US plans to turn the Taiwan Strait into a “Hellscape” of drone swarms against a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, buying time for US and allied intervention to assist the beleaguered self-governing island in a war scenario.
This month, The Washington Post reported that the US Indo-Pacific Command, led by Admiral Samuel Paparo, has announced a “Hellscape” strategy to use drone swarms to thwart any potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
According to the report, the Hellscape plan responds to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s directive that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) be combat-ready to take Taiwan by force, if necessary, by 2027.
The US plan involves using numerous unmanned drones, submarines, surface ships and other classified capabilities to swarm the Taiwan Strait to slow down Chinese forces for a month to allow the US and its allies to mount a full response.
In line with the Hellscape strategy’s Fabian approach, Asia Times noted in a February 2024 report that Taiwan was most vulnerable to defeat in the first 90 days of a Chinese invasion and would most likely fall quickly without a US and allied military intervention.
However, the Washington Post notes that the PLA’s rapid expansion and US military budget constraints present significant challenges to implementing the Hellscape strategy.
For instance, Asia Times has noted that the US Navy’s drone budget would fall to US$101.8 million in 2025, down from $172 million this year. Also, the US Navy remains wedded to building major combatants such as destroyers and submarines instead of fully embracing drone technology.
In contrast, China has 232 times the US shipbuilding capacity, making it urgent for the latter to invest in unmanned tech as a force multiplier to offset the former’s numerical advantage. The US has thusly surged the development and deployment of drone swarms in the Pacific through its Replicator Program.
In September 2023, Asia Times reported that the US Department of Defense (DOD) had introduced the Replicator Program to accelerate the deployment of autonomous expendable platforms for air, land and sea operations.
Replicator seeks to produce affordable autonomous drones on a large scale and implement a fast, scalable technological development process. Additionally, it may involve a program to create large unmanned undersea vehicles in partnership with the US Navy.
Replicator may already be making headway. In May 2024, Asia Times reported that the US, incorporating lessons learned from the Ukraine war, has included its Switchblade tank-killing kamikaze drone in the program while also exploring low-cost unmanned suicide boat designs.
Drone swarms may prove decisive in repelling a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, overwhelming China’s defenses while enhancing the capabilities of manned assets.
In May 2022, Asia Times reported that the US Air Force, in collaboration with the RAND Corporation think tank and the Air Force’s Warfighting Integration Capability (AFWIC) office, has conducted simulations revealing the potential of autonomous drone swarms in defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.
Defense researcher David Ochmanek highlighted the simulations during an online discussion that suggested drone swarms using a “mesh” laser data-sharing network could be crucial in securing a US victory.
This network enables drones to share flight and targeting data instantaneously, making the swarm autonomous and potentially overwhelming China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, which include ballistic and cruise missiles, anti-satellite weapons and advanced air defense networks.
When paired with stealthy manned aircraft like the F-35 and F-22, the drone swarms could serve as decoys and extend the sensor capabilities of manned platforms, increasing situational awareness and target acquisition.
However, Ochmanek expressed concerns about the technology’s maturity, citing vulnerabilities to electronic warfare, cyberattacks and bandwidth limitations. He also noted that the 2020 simulation resulted in a Pyrrhic US victory, contrasting with previous simulations where the US fared poorly.
Despite drones’ potential to “unman the battlefield,” the Ukraine war shows that they have made the battlefield deadlier, with a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait likely to be the same.
In January 2023, Asia Times reported that the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank conducted a simulation of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 that suggested the US and its allies could push back the attack but it would lead to heavy casualties for all sides.
The CSIS simulation estimated that the US and Japan would lose 449 combat aircraft, 43 ships (including two aircraft carriers) and 6,960 personnel, with 3,200 fatalities. Taiwan, on the other hand, was projected to lose half of its air force, 22 ships and 3,500 ground troops, with a third of them killed in action.
China lost 138 ships, 155 combat aircraft and 52,000 ground troops, with around 7,000 battle casualties, 15,000 fatalities at sea and 30,000 prisoners of war.
The CSIS report outlined four critical assumptions for a US victory, emphasizing the importance of Taiwan’s resistance, the lack of resupply options for Taiwan, the US’s ability to utilize bases in Japan, and the necessity to strike from outside China’s A2/AD bubble.
However, the report cautioned that a Pyrrhic US victory could undermine long-term deterrence. It suggested that China might risk an invasion if it perceived US reluctance to sustain heavy losses.
While military authorities such as Paparo are fixated on a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the heavy casualties involved in a Normandy-style cross-strait invasion mean it’s not likely China’s preferred way to incorporate Taiwan with the mainland.
In August 2022, Asia Times mentioned that China could mount a “squeeze and relax” strategy to starve Taiwan into capitulation via an indefinite naval blockade. Taiwan reportedly has only an 11-day supply of natural gas and 146 days’ worth of oil. Such an approach assumes China has time and can avoid overextending itself in a Taiwan-seizing operation.
The strategy involves carrying out a series of military drills around Taiwan, effectively acting as a blockade. These exercises would be followed by periods of reduced tension to facilitate discussions. The key point is that any major military drill, which Beijing is increasingly launching, could become a blockade.
In May 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published a report outlining the non-military methods China could employ against Taiwan, focusing on attacking four centers of gravity.
The ISW report highlights China’s potential use of economic pressure, propaganda and military threats to persuade US and Taiwanese leaders of the benefits of increased cooperation. Additionally, it mentions tactics such as eroding the legitimacy of the Taiwanese government, psychological tactics to undermine public morale and implementing misinformation efforts to reduce US public and political support for Taiwan.
It says that if China successfully assaults those centers of gravity with non-kinetic means, the Taiwanese people will feel an overwhelming sense of abandonment and the new Taiwanese government will be forced to consider a “new model” for cross-strait relations.
ISW asserts that the US and Taiwan are unprepared to deal with a multiyear coercion campaign aimed at forcing Taiwan’s eventual capitulation and annexation by China.
